QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Beverages
Monster Beverage MNST
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $48.51+2%
- Market Value
- $45.01price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.25
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $47.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.15−30.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$45.01−4.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$47.34you are here
- Fair value est.base case$48.51+2.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$49.97+5.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.5%; bull = 8.5% and 11.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MNST’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MNST moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.25
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 20% to $9.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 29% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months, up 3 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 2.0% median for the 39 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 64.0× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 65×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.5% over 12 months, above the −0.6% median for the 27 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 14.5×, above the 2.7× median for the 35 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.2% above its Market Value of $45.01, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Monster Beverage in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Beverages
All fundamentals
P/E 64.0 · FCF yield 1.5% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 64.0×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 64.9×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 14.77×
- Price / book
- 14.54×
- Market cap
- $136Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Net income growth
- +35%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.5%
- Operating margin
- 29.2%
- Net margin
- 23.1%
- FCF margin
- 22.8%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $221M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $136M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Monster Beverage’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $48.51 · MV $45.01 · FCF value $18.07
Assumes 9.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.12 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +2.5%
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales +20%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital23%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.7×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.30
- Year-ago EPS$0.28
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MNST fires a reversal signal
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