QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Tobacco
Philip Morris International PM
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $188.78−10%
- Market Value
- $202.69price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.17
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $208.79
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$144.33−30.9%
- Fair value est.base case$188.78−9.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$202.69−2.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$208.79at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$208.79you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.6%; bull = 8.5% and 10.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.17
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 61% to $7.26 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 40%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 36.6% in FY2025 from 32.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 34% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 30.5× is 36% above its own average of 22.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 30.5× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividends take 86% of earnings ($9.2B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.2%, below the 5.9% median for the 37 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Philip Morris International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
All fundamentals
P/E 30.5 · FCF yield 4.2% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.5×3-yr-end avg 22.5× · Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 24.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.6×
- Price / sales
- 7.55×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $326Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $367B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $43.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.85
- EPS growth, last FY
- +60.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $10.7B
- Net income growth
- +24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.7%
- Operating margin
- 38.6%
- Net margin
- 24.8%
- FCF margin
- 31.5%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 40%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.7B
- Total debt
- $47.6B
- Net cash
- −$40.9B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $13.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +34%
- Dividend yield
- 2.82%$9.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 86%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Philip Morris International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $188.78 · MV $202.69 · FCF value $218.43
Assumes 8.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.71 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +4.7%
The business
FCF $13.6B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$13.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin32%
- Gross margin68%
- Operating margin39%
- Return on invested capital33%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PM fires a reversal signal
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