QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Agricultural Chemicals
Mosaic Company MOS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 41% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 16% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $21.86price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −41%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.59
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $18.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.27−6.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$18.39you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$21.86+18.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$31.36+70.5%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for MOS: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MOS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.59
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 209% to $1.70 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.8% ($280M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $12.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 10.5×, below the 16.6× median for the 96 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 15.9% below its Market Value of $21.86, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$947M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityLost $638M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 14% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.5B, 78% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mosaic Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
FCF yield -16.3% · ROE -5% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −16.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.47×
- Price / book
- 0.51×
- Market cap
- $5.8Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $10.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −14.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$2.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- +209.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$638M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.0%
- Operating margin
- −1.4%
- Net margin
- −5.2%
- FCF margin
- −7.7%
- Return on equity
- −5%
- Return on invested capital
- −1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $294M
- Total debt
- $4.8B
- Net cash
- −$4.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.42×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$947M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.83%$280M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Mosaic Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $21.86
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days +3.1%
The business
FCF $-0.8B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield−12.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−6%
- Gross margin11%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity−5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.03)
- Year-ago EPS$1.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MOS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.