QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Agricultural Chemicals
Nutrien NTR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $69.21at the price
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.24
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $69.42
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$53.64−22.7%
- Fair value est.base case$69.21−0.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$69.42you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$83.94+20.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NTR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NTR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.24
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 243% to $4.66 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 14.9× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.3% (price / FCF 15.9×): $2.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 13.9% in FY2025 from 9.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 41% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 3.5% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 9.1%, below the 15% median for the 132 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.66): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nutrien in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 14.9 · FCF yield 6.3% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.9×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 15.9×
- FCF yield
- 6.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.26×
- Price / book
- 1.33×
- Market cap
- $33.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $26.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −10.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- +242.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Net income growth
- +236%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.0%
- Operating margin
- 13.9%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $701M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +41%
- Dividend yield
- 3.14%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 47%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $551M1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Nutrien’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $69.21 · FCF value $109.91
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -10.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.37 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Feb 27, 2026. Net debt $9.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days −0.5%
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.9×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.66
- Year-ago EPS$0.93
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NTR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.