QualityDipStocks / Energy · Natural Gas Distribution
MPLX LP Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests MPLX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $54.64−9%
- Market Value
- $58.53price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.04
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $60.16
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$50.57−15.9%
- Fair value est.base case$54.64−9.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$58.53−2.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$60.16you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$60.51+0.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.8%; bull = 8.5% and 5.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MPLX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MPLX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.04
- Volatility
- 17% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.5% (price / FCF 18.3×): $3.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 45.7% in FY2025 from 43.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $13.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 3.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the −7.3% median for the 44 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 26% to $25.7B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 32% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $1.11): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MPLX LP Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Energy
All fundamentals
P/E 12.9 · FCF yield 5.5% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.9×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 18.3×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.61×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $61.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Net income growth
- +10%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 44.4%
- Net margin
- 35.7%
- FCF margin
- 25.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 4.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −32%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $300M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From MPLX LP Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $54.64 · MV $58.53 · FCF value $82.76
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.29 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +1.7%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin40%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.11
- Year-ago EPS$1.52
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MPLX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.