QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electrical Products
Mercury Systems MRCY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 39% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $18.15−77%
- Market Value
- $80.45price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −39%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.13
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 39% below its 52-week high (Jul 2), but the business held up: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, revenue +1.7%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, revenue +1.7%), others slipped. The price is 39% below its 52-week high.
The price is 39% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$967M → $984M (+1.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+9.0% → +7.9% a year (−1.1 pts)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$73M → $68M (−7.4%)about the same
- Operating margin1.0% → 0.0% (−0.9 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+0.1% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −39%, sector median +3% since Jul 2changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −39%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −3% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 102.0× at the high → 67.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 27, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 3, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($126.21, Jul 2) the price assumed about 38%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($66.12, Nov 20) about 14%; today about 30%. The last 3 years delivered 0%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 0%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $126.21Jul 2 | $66.12Nov 20 | $77.37 |
| Implied growth | +38% | +14% | +30% |
| P/FCF | 102.0× | 28.9× | 67.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MRCY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 30% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MRCY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.13
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
How it ranks
Where MRCY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate77% · price above our base caseLowest 2%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.5% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 23%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 42%of 1,814
- Operating margin0% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 12%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $18.15 · MV $80.45
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.3% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.15 a share (fiscal year to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 18, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 0.0% in FY2026 from −17.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 28.6% in FY2026 from 23.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 3.1×, below the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 3.8% below its Market Value of $80.45, the average price paid since the Sep 16 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $18.15, 77% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $30M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 43% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.5% · ROE -2% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 67.6×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.68×
- Price / book
- 3.07×
- Market cap
- $4.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $984M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$30M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.6%
- Operating margin
- 0.0%
- Net margin
- −3.0%
- FCF margin
- 6.9%
- Return on equity
- −2%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $214M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 0.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $68M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −43%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $15M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Mercury Systems’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +6%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity−2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $77.37
- Fair value est.base case$18.15−76.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$66.12−14.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$77.37you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 16$80.45+4.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$126.21+63.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 45 · 5 days −2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.10
- Year-ago EPS$0.05
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
MRCY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Mercury Systems in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electrical Products
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.