QualityDipStocks / Technology · Communications equipment
Motorola Solutions MSI
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $348.08−29%
- Market Value
- $468.14price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.13
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $491.53
- Fair value est.base case$348.08−29.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$363.83−26.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$468.14−4.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$491.53you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$492.08+0.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.6%; bull = 8.5% and 10.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MSI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MSI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.13
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 92% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 38% to $12.75 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 21%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 25.6% in FY2025 from 23.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $348.08, 29% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 52% to $9.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.4× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationPrice / book of 30.8×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.0% above its Market Value of $468.14, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Motorola Solutions in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Communications equipment
All fundamentals
P/E 38.5 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 92%
Valuation
- P/E
- 38.5×3-yr-end avg 37.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 25.2×
- Price / sales
- 6.72×
- Price / book
- 30.76×
- Market cap
- $82.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $90.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.69
- EPS growth, last FY
- +38.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.0%
- Operating margin
- 24.9%
- Net margin
- 17.4%
- FCF margin
- 21.9%
- Return on equity
- 92%
- Return on invested capital
- 21%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $710M
- Total debt
- $9.0B
- Net cash
- −$8.3B
- Debt / equity
- 3.38×
- Interest coverage
- 6.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +12%
- Dividend yield
- 0.93%$766M paid
- Payout ratio
- 36%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $357M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 4, 2026. From Motorola Solutions’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $348.08 · MV $468.14 · FCF value $404.58
Assumes 8.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $16.01 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $8.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 72 · 5 days +2.0%
The business
FCF $2.7B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin22%
- Gross margin52%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity90%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.99
- Year-ago EPS$3.69
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MSI fires a reversal signal
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