QualityDipStocks / Technology · Communications equipment
Ubiquiti UI
In a deep dip: 48% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $462.97−18%
- Market Value
- $581.41price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −48%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.69
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $563.81
- Fair value est.base case$462.97−17.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$515.44−8.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$563.81you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 21$581.41+3.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,084+92.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.69
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.38
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 91% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 36.2% in FY2026 from 25.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $500M at FY2025, 55% less than at FY2023.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $3.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 48% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $462.97, 18% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 35.6× is 14% above its own average of 31.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationPrice / book of 23.7×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 6 (consensus EPS $3.82): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.69 vs the S&P 500 and 52% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ubiquiti in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Communications equipment
All fundamentals
P/E 35.6 · FCF yield 2.7% · ROE 91%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.6×3-yr-end avg 31.3× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 37.6×
- FCF yield
- 2.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 10.43×
- Price / book
- 23.71×
- Market cap
- $34.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.85
- EPS growth, last FY
- +34.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $960M
- Net income growth
- +35%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 46.2%
- Operating margin
- 36.2%
- Net margin
- 29.3%
- FCF margin
- 27.8%
- Return on equity
- 91%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $611M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $909M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +45%
- Dividend yield
- 0.57%$194M paid
- Payout ratio
- 20%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Ubiquiti’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $462.97 · MV $581.41 · FCF value $349.50
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.0% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.01 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 21, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −4.0%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin46%
- Operating margin36%
- Return on invested capital65%
- Return on equity93%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6
- Consensus EPS$3.82
- Year-ago EPS$3.42
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when UI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on UI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.