QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
Vail Resorts MTN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 5.7%, top 5% of the 1731 we measure
- Share count down 6% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $109.80−29%
- Market Value
- $150.71price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.44
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 4% below its 52-week high (Dec 12), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −7.3 pts, earnings per share −44.5%, free cash flow −29.6%). The price is 4% below its 52-week high.
The price is 4% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −7.3 pts, earnings per share −44.5%, free cash flow −29.6%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($161.76, Dec 12) the price assumed about 4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($119.02, Apr 24) about 2%; today about 9%. The last 3 years delivered −8%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −8%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $161.76Dec 12 | $119.02Apr 24 | $154.82 |
| Implied growth | +4% | +2% | +9% |
| P/E | 21.8× | 18.3× | 37.6× |
| P/FCF | 16.5× | 14.9× | 22.3× |
| EV/Sales | 2.8× | 2.3× | 3.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.44
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.03
How it ranks
Where MTN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate29% · price above our base caseLowest 27%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 45%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield32% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−4.3% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 1,814
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 41%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital10% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 48%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $109.80 · MV $150.71 · FCF value $133.71
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.6% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.93 a share (fiscal year to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-K filed Sep 28, 2026. Net debt $2.9B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months, up 29 points in two years.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.7% ($317M paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsShare count down 4.3% in a year: $1.4B of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $109.80, 29% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt is 13.2× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 45% to $4.12 in FY2026.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.0× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 37.6 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 37.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 22.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.95×
- Price / book
- 23.04×
- Market cap
- $5.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.12
- EPS growth, last FY
- −45.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $148M
- Net income growth
- −47%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 14.8%
- Net margin
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- 8.7%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $268M
- Total debt
- $3.2B
- Net cash
- −$2.9B
- Debt / equity
- 13.24×
- Interest coverage
- 2.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $248M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −22%
- Dividend yield
- 5.72%$317M paid
- Payout ratio
- 215%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.4B26.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $28M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Vail Resorts’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin−74%
- Return on invested capital−49%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $154.82
- Fair value est.base case$109.80−29.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$119.02−23.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 19$150.71−2.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$154.82you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$161.76+4.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +3.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MTN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Vail Resorts in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.