QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
Churchill Downs CHDN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 19% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.40
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $94.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.95−22.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$94.83you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$117.59+24.0%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for CHDN: the model gives 217% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CHDN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CHDN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.40
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.3% (price / FCF 9.7×): $682M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 37% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.7× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 26% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.6B, 69% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.7× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 4% over the last 12 months, from 17% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.4× shareholders’ equity.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Churchill Downs in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
All fundamentals
P/E 14.7 · FCF yield 10.3% · ROE 37%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 9.7×
- FCF yield
- 10.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.21×
- Price / book
- 4.81×
- Market cap
- $6.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- −3.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $451M
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 25.5%
- Net margin
- 15.0%
- FCF margin
- 22.7%
- Return on equity
- 37%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $167M
- Total debt
- $4.7B
- Net cash
- −$4.6B
- Debt / equity
- 3.42×
- Interest coverage
- 2.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $682M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- 0.48%$32M paid
- Payout ratio
- 7%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $76M1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Churchill Downs’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
FCF value $130.01
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 73 · 5 days +13.3%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CHDN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.