QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Major Chemicals
Minerals Technologies MTX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $65.31+1%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.58
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 22% below its 52-week high (May 13), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +2.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.3% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +8.7%.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +2.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.3% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +8.7%), others slipped (earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −14.1 pts). The price is 22% below its 52-week high.
The price is 22% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −14.1 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.1B → $2.2B (+2.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+2.5% → +4.8% a year (+2.3 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$118M → $129M (+8.7%)held up
- Operating margin12.5% → −1.6% (−14.1 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+0.6% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+3.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Basic Materials)stock −22%, sector median −16% since May 13held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −22%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 21.7× at the high → 15.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Apr 5, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Oct 4, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($82.84, May 13) the price assumed about 9%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($55.50, Nov 6) about 5%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered 55%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 55%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $82.84May 13 | $55.50Nov 6 | $64.83 |
| Implied growth | +9% | +5% | +3% |
| P/E | 15.9× | n/a | n/a |
| P/FCF | 21.7× | 17.9× | 15.7× |
| EV/Sales | 1.5× | 1.2× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.58
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where MTX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate1% · price below our base caseTop 44%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 28%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 39%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+4.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 28%of 1,814
- Operating margin−1.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 11%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−1.3% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 7%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $65.31 · FCF value $105.35
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.12 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $579M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.4% (price / FCF 15.7×): $129M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 33% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.3×, below the 2.8× median for the 49 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $68M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −2% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 2.3% in FY2025 from 7.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew only −0.8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to -1% in FY2025.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 6.4% · ROE -4% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 15.7×
- FCF yield
- 6.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.93×
- Price / book
- 1.28×
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$2.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$68M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.9%
- Operating margin
- −1.6%
- Net margin
- −3.1%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
- Return on equity
- −4%
- Return on invested capital
- −1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $379M
- Total debt
- $958M
- Net cash
- −$579M
- Debt / equity
- 0.61×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $129M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +33%
- Dividend yield
- 0.74%$15M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $22M1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Oct 4, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 4, 2026. From Minerals Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.4%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $64.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$55.50−14.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$64.83you are here
- Fair value est.base case$65.31+0.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$82.84+27.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MTX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Minerals Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Basic Materials
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.