QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
The Marzetti Company MZTI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $107.70−3%
- Market Value
- $104.99price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.13
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 36% below its 52-week high (Nov 12), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin −0.0 pts, earnings per share +3.1%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin −0.0 pts, earnings per share +3.1%), others slipped (free cash flow −27.3%, revenue growth rate −4.1 pts). The price is 36% below its 52-week high.
The price is 36% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −27.3%, revenue growth rate −4.1 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.9B → $1.9B (−0.9%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+3.2% → −0.9% a year (−4.1 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$6.18 → $6.37 (+3.1%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$255M → $185M (−27.3%)changed
- Operating margin11.6% → 11.5% (−0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−0.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Staples)stock −36%, sector median +10% since Nov 12changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −36%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 18.8× at the high → 16.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($174.10, Nov 12) the price assumed about 6%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($99.19, Sep 30) about 0%; today about 4%. The last 3 years delivered 15%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 15%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $174.10Nov 12 | $99.19Sep 30 | $110.93 |
| Implied growth | +6% | 0% | +4% |
| P/E | 28.2× | 14.2× | 17.4× |
| P/FCF | 18.8× | 13.2× | 16.3× |
| EV/Sales | — | 1.5× | 1.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MZTI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MZTI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.13
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.17
How it ranks
Where MZTI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate3% · price above our base caseTop 47%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 30%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 27%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−0.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 11%of 1,814
- Operating margin12% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 48%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital14% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 36%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $107.70 · MV $104.99 · FCF value $120.17
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.9% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026. Net debt $179M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.1% (price / FCF 16.3×): $185M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.6% ($110M paid over 12 months, 63% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 48× over.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 27% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew only 1.9% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales fell 0.9% over the last 12 months, below the 2.4% median for the 58 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 5.7% above its Market Value of $104.99, the average price paid since the Aug 25 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 17.4 · FCF yield 6.1% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.4×Consumer Staples median 22.1×
- Price / FCF
- 16.3×
- FCF yield
- 6.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.58×
- Price / book
- 2.88×
- Market cap
- $3.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.34
- EPS growth, last FY
- +15.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $174M
- Net income growth
- +2%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.5%
- Operating margin
- 11.5%
- Net margin
- 9.1%
- FCF margin
- 9.7%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $18M
- Total debt
- $197M
- Net cash
- −$179M
- Debt / equity
- 0.19×
- Interest coverage
- 48.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $185M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −27%
- Dividend yield
- 3.63%$110M paid
- Payout ratio
- 63%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $41M1.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From The Marzetti Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $110.93
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$99.19−10.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 25$104.99−5.4%
- Fair value est.base case$107.70−2.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$110.93you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$174.10+56.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +1.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
MZTI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Marzetti Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.