QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods
Utz Brands UTZ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $9.15−36%
- Market Value
- $14.23at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.63
1 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Oct 8), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($14.32, Oct 8) the price assumed about 11%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($6.80, Jun 4) about 1%; today about 11%. The last 3 years delivered 1%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 1%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $14.32Oct 8 | $6.80Jun 4 | $14.29 |
| Implied growth | +11% | +1% | +11% |
| P/FCF | 24.8× | 14.2× | 24.8× |
| EV/Sales | 1.4× | 0.9× | 1.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UTZ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UTZ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 7.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.63
- Volatility
- 97% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
How it ranks
Where UTZ stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate36% · price above our base caseLowest 22%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 50%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 38%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 19%of 1,814
- Operating margin0.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 14%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital0.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 10%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $9.15 · MV $14.23 · FCF value $17.01
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.7% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 28, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $780M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 1 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 1.8×, below the 2.9× median for the 54 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $9.15, 36% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.2× over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 95% to $0.01 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityLost $29M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 10.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 4.0% · ROE -4% · Sales +2%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 24.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.87×
- Price / book
- 1.82×
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- −94.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$29M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.4%
- Operating margin
- 0.7%
- Net margin
- −2.0%
- FCF margin
- 3.5%
- Return on equity
- −4%
- Return on invested capital
- 1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $59M
- Total debt
- $839M
- Net cash
- −$780M
- Debt / equity
- 1.21×
- Interest coverage
- 0.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $51M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.78%$22M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 28, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 28, 2026. From Utz Brands’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity−3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA10.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.80−52.4%
- Fair value est.base case$9.15−36.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$14.23−0.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$14.29you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$14.32+0.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +0.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
UTZ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Utz Brands in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Packaged Foods
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.