QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
Nexa Resources NEXA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 32% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 30% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.42
52-week range 54% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $11.43
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 32% below its 52-week high (May 6), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 32% below its 52-week high.
The price is 32% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.0B → $3.0B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.00 → $1.00 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$13M → $13M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin16.6% → 16.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Basic Materials)stock −32%, sector median −17% since May 6about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −32%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 169.2× at the high → 115.7× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (May 6, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($16.72, May 6) the price assumed about 49%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 41%. The last 3 years delivered 0%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 0%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $16.72May 6 | $11.43 |
| Implied growth | +49% | +41% |
| P/E | 16.7× | 11.4× |
| P/FCF | 169.2× | 115.7× |
| EV/Sales | 0.6× | 0.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for NEXA: the model gives 86% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NEXA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 41% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NEXA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.42
- Volatility
- 75% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.40
How it ranks
Where NEXA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 46%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+8.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 46%of 2,184
- Operating margin17% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 32%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital92% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 1%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $70.48
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 16.6% in FY2025 from −5.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 92%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 23.7% in FY2025 from 11.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $460M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
ValuationP/E of 11.4× vs a 16.8× median for the 40 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.6× over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.9% (price / FCF 116×), so the price leans on future growth.
GrowthSales fell 0.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 14% median for the 54 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.42 vs the S&P 500 and 75% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 11.4 · FCF yield 0.9% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.4×Basic Materials median 16.8×
- Price / FCF
- 115.7×
- FCF yield
- 0.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.50×
- Price / book
- 1.51×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.00
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $133M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.7%
- Operating margin
- 16.6%
- Net margin
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 0.4%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 92%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $516M
- Total debt
- $55M
- Net cash
- $460M
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- 1.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $13M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −86%
- Dividend yield
- 2.26%$34M paid
- Payout ratio
- 26%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Nexa Resources’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +28%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+28%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $11.43
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.25−54.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$11.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$16.72+46.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −1.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
NEXA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nexa Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.