QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Metal Mining
Ero Copper ERO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 29% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 67%
- ROE 35% and more cash than debt
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $39.22+35%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.45
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 28% below its 52-week high (Aug 25), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 28% below its 52-week high.
The price is 28% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$786M → $786M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.53 → $2.53 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$132M → $132M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin34.4% → 34.4% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Basic Materials)stock −28%, sector median −25% since Aug 25held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −28%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 31.8× at the high → 22.9× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 25, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($40.40, Aug 25) the price assumed about 16%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 10%. The last 3 years delivered 23%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 23%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $40.40Aug 25 | $29.16 |
| Implied growth | +16% | +10% |
| P/E | 16.0× | 11.5× |
| P/FCF | 31.8× | 22.9× |
| EV/Sales | 5.3× | 3.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ERO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ERO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.45
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.50
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.54
How it ranks
Where ERO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate35% · price below our base caseTop 27%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 46%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+67% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 5%of 1,814
- Operating margin34% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 8%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital25% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 16%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $39.22 · FCF value $12.15
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.27 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Mar 30, 2026. Net cash $50M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 67% to $786M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 34.4% in FY2025 from 22.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 11.5× vs a 17.3× median for the 38 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $39.22, 35% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 3.2×, above the 2.8× median for the 49 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 11.0×, above the 10.6× median for the 15 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.45 vs the S&P 500 and 63% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 11.5 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 35%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.5×Basic Materials median 17.3×
- Price / FCF
- 22.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.0×
- Price / sales
- 3.86×
- Price / book
- 3.25×
- Market cap
- $3.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $786M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +67.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $264M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.9%
- Operating margin
- 34.4%
- Net margin
- 33.6%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- 25%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $105M
- Total debt
- $56M
- Net cash
- $50M
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- 8.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $132M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Ero Copper’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +74%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+74%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $29.16
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.89−31.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$29.16you are here
- Fair value est.base case$39.22+34.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$40.40+38.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days −6.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ERO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ero Copper in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Mining
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.