QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Plastic Products
Newell Brands NWL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.15
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 6% below its 52-week high (Aug 3), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +2.8 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.1% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +2.8 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +13.1% of market cap since the high), others slipped (free cash flow −55.1%). The price is 6% below its 52-week high.
The price is 6% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −55.1%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($6.36, Aug 3) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 23%. The last 3 years delivered −9%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −9%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $6.36Aug 3 | $3.11Nov 6 | $5.96 |
| Implied growth | +10% | n/a | +23% |
| P/FCF | 23.2× | — | 47.2× |
| EV/Sales | 1.0× | 0.8× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for NWL: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 79% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 31% in FY2023), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NWL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.15
- Volatility
- 61% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where NWL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield2.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 28%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield5.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 26%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 15%of 1,814
- Operating margin1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 14%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital0.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 11%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.1% ($127M paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 33.8% in FY2025 from 28.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $323M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.5B, 179% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales shrank 9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 1%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.1% · ROE -13% · Sales +1%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 47.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.1×
- Price / sales
- 0.34×
- Price / book
- 1.06×
- Market cap
- $2.5Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $7.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$323M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 35.6%
- Operating margin
- 1.0%
- Net margin
- −4.4%
- FCF margin
- 0.7%
- Return on equity
- −13%
- Return on invested capital
- 1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $371M
- Total debt
- $4.8B
- Net cash
- −$4.5B
- Debt / equity
- 2.05×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $53M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 5.08%$127M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Newell Brands’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity−13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $5.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.11−47.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$5.96you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$6.36+6.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +10.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
NWL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Newell Brands in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Plastic Products
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.