QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Plastic Products
Armstrong World Industries AWI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $117.77−31%
- Market Value
- $160.79price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.70
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Feb 10), but the business held up: revenue +9.1%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, earnings per share +8.3%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +9.1%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, earnings per share +8.3%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −6.0 pts, free cash flow −9.8%). The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −6.0 pts, free cash flow −9.8%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.6B → $1.7B (+9.1%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+15.1% → +9.1% a year (−6.0 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$7.00 → $7.59 (+8.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$242M → $218M (−9.8%)changed
- Operating margin26.3% → 25.8% (−0.5 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding−3.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −16%, sector median −5% since Feb 10held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +8% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 36.6× at the high → 33.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($203.15, Feb 10) the price assumed about 18%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($151.43, Jul 21) about 13%; today about 16%. The last 3 years delivered 32%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 32%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $203.15Feb 10 | $151.43Jul 21 | $171.10 |
| Implied growth | +18% | +13% | +16% |
| P/E | 29.0× | 21.4× | 22.6× |
| P/FCF | 36.6× | 27.4× | 33.2× |
| EV/Sales | 5.7× | 4.2× | 4.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.5%; bull = 8.5% and 11.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AWI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AWI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.70
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where AWI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate31% · price above our base caseLowest 26%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 38%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 48%of 1,814
- Operating margin26% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 16%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital26% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 14%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $117.77 · MV $160.79 · FCF value $124.76
Assumes 9.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.15 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $398M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 36% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 26%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $263M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 26% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 18% to $7.08 in FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $117.77, 31% below the price.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.1×, above the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.0%, below the 3.6% median for the 250 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.8%, below the 1.1% median for the 188 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.4% above its Market Value of $160.79, the average price paid since the Oct 27 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 22.6 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 36%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.6×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 33.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.3×
- Price / sales
- 4.15×
- Price / book
- 8.10×
- Market cap
- $7.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- +17.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $321M
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.8%
- Operating margin
- 25.8%
- Net margin
- 18.4%
- FCF margin
- 12.5%
- Return on equity
- 36%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $71M
- Total debt
- $470M
- Net cash
- −$398M
- Debt / equity
- 0.53×
- Interest coverage
- 14.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $218M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −10%
- Dividend yield
- 0.82%$59M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $263M3.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Armstrong World Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin40%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $171.10
- Fair value est.base case$117.77−31.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$151.43−11.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 27$160.79−6.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$171.10you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$203.15+18.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +3.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AWI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Armstrong World Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Plastic Products
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.