QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Nextpower NXT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 49% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $109.12+38%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −49%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.71
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $79.33
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$76.48−3.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$79.33you are here
- Fair value est.base case$109.12+37.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$156.40+97.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NXT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NXT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.71
- Volatility
- 66% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.54
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $109.12, 38% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 20.7× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 17% to $3.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 19.6% in FY2026 from 23.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 7 points in two fiscal years, to 25% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 33%, below the 59% median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.8% over 12 months, above the −0.4% median for the 147 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.71 vs the S&P 500 and 66% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nextpower in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 20.7 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.7×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 22.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.39×
- Price / book
- 4.81×
- Market cap
- $12.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +23.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- +10.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $594M
- Net income growth
- +9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.4%
- Operating margin
- 19.3%
- Net margin
- 16.4%
- FCF margin
- 15.1%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $549M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −4%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $128M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Nextpower’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $109.12 · FCF value $63.92
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 23.2% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.54 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +0.6%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital35%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NXT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.