QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Semtech SMTC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 35% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 20% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $45.13−65%
- Market Value
- $159.20price −20%
- Off 52-wk high
- −35%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.23
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $127.38
- Fair value est.base case$45.13−64.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$62.57−50.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$127.38you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 25$159.20+25.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$197.20+54.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.5%; bull = 8.5% and 13.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SMTC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 31% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SMTC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.23
- Volatility
- 80% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.63
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 51.6% in FY2026 from 34.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 3.1% in FY2026 from −108.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $491M at FY2026, 64% less than at FY2024.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 51% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationTrades 20.0% below its Market Value of $159.20, the average price paid since the Aug 25 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.13, 65% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 16.3% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationP/E of 81.1× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 3.0× over the last 12 months.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.23 vs the S&P 500 and 80% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Semtech in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 81.1 · FCF yield 1.5% · Sales +18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 81.1×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 64.7×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 10.63×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $12.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.51
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $154M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.1%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- Net margin
- 13.1%
- FCF margin
- 16.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 3.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $193M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +51%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +16.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $84M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 26, 2026. From Semtech’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $45.13 · MV $159.20 · FCF value $31.60
Assumes 11.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.5% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.77 a share (trailing 12 months to Apr 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed May 27, 2026. Net debt $329M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −3.5%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin53%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Next report
Nov 23
- DateMon Nov 23
- Consensus EPS$0.92
- Year-ago EPS$0.29
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SMTC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.