QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Viavi Solutions VIAV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 46% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 22% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $9.01−70%
- Market Value
- $38.32price −22%
- Off 52-wk high
- −46%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.51
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $29.92
- Fair value est.base case$9.01−69.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$15.92−46.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$29.92you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$38.32+28.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$55.33+84.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.1%; bull = 8.5% and 13.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VIAV’s free cash flow would need to grow about 34% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VIAV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.51
- Volatility
- 81% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 40% to $1.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 6.9% in FY2026 from 2.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 34% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetNet cash of $160M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 27, 2026).
ValuationTrades 21.9% below its Market Value of $38.32, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $9.01, 70% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $30M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 10.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.2× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Viavi Solutions in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.2% · ROE -3% · Sales +40%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 82.9×
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 39.9×
- Price / sales
- 4.52×
- Price / book
- 4.74×
- Market cap
- $6.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +40.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.13
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$30M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 57.7%
- Operating margin
- 6.9%
- Net margin
- −2.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.5%
- Return on equity
- −3%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $650M
- Total debt
- $490M
- Net cash
- $160M
- Debt / equity
- 0.34×
- Interest coverage
- 2.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $83M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +34%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $30M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +10.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $55M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Viavi Solutions’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $9.01 · MV $38.32
Assumes 11.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.1% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.36 a share (fiscal year to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 13, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −1.7%
The business
Sales +52%
- Gross margin61%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity−3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+52%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.2×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.35
- Year-ago EPS$0.09
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VIAV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.