QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Oil & Gas Production
ONEOK OKE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $120.16+24%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.57
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $97.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$64.31−33.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$97.07you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$97.51+0.5%
- Fair value est.base case$120.16+23.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.5%; bull = 8.5% and 16.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OKE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OKE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.57
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.33
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 37% to $43.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 15.1× vs a 21.2× median for the 55 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.3% ($2.7B paid over 12 months, 66% of earnings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $120.16, 24% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 51% to $32.8B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 17.1% in FY2025 from 23.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $28.3B, 46% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ONEOK in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Utilities
All fundamentals
P/E 15.1 · FCF yield 4.1% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.1×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 24.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.7×
- Price / sales
- 1.42×
- Price / book
- 2.63×
- Market cap
- $61.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $89.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $43.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +36.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Net income growth
- +22%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.2%
- Operating margin
- 14.2%
- Net margin
- 9.4%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $186M
- Total debt
- $28.5B
- Net cash
- −$28.3B
- Debt / equity
- 1.22×
- Interest coverage
- 3.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 4.35%$2.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 66%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From ONEOK’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $120.16 · FCF value $101.65
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 14.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.00 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $28.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +1.3%
The business
FCF $2.5B · Sales +44%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin22%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+44%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
OKE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.