QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Onto Innovation ONTO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 47% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 26% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $80.53−60%
- Market Value
- $271.11price −26%
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.23
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $201.57
- Fair value est.base case$80.53−60.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$124.09−38.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$201.57you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$271.11+34.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$378.45+87.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ONTO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ONTO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.23
- Volatility
- 72% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.70
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 8% to $1.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 50%, above the 35% median for the 114 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 25.7% below its Market Value of $271.11, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $80.53, 60% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 75.5× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 32% to $2.78 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.23 vs the S&P 500 and 72% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Onto Innovation in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 75.5 · FCF yield 2.5% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 75.5×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 39.7×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.94×
- Price / book
- 5.21×
- Market cap
- $10.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- −31.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $133M
- Net income growth
- −34%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 50.4%
- Operating margin
- 12.0%
- Net margin
- 11.8%
- FCF margin
- 22.5%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.9B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $252M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +6%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $205M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Onto Innovation’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $80.53 · MV $271.11 · FCF value $92.46
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.0% a year FY22–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.08 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 33 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +35%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+35%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.3×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$2.27
- Year-ago EPS$0.92
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ONTO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.