QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Owens Corning OC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 24% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $176.35+46%
- Market Value
- $128.52price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −24%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.47
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $121.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$98.28−18.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$121.15you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$128.52+6.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$158.96+31.2%
- Fair value est.base case$176.35+45.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.47
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $176.35, 46% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.2% (price / FCF 10.9×): $897M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.7% in a year: $682M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($241M paid over 12 months).
ValuationTrades 5.7% below its Market Value of $128.52, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 3.6% in FY2025 from 19.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $671M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 37 points in two fiscal years, to -14% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 70% to $5.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Owens Corning in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
FCF yield 9.2% · ROE -15% · Sales −7%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 10.9×
- FCF yield
- 9.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.3×
- Price / sales
- 0.99×
- Price / book
- 2.59×
- Market cap
- $9.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $14.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −7.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$7.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$671M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.0%
- Operating margin
- 0.5%
- Net margin
- −6.8%
- FCF margin
- 9.1%
- Return on equity
- −15%
- Return on invested capital
- 0%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $271M
- Total debt
- $5.2B
- Net cash
- −$4.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.38×
- Interest coverage
- 0.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $897M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −2%
- Dividend yield
- 2.47%$241M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $682M7.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $67M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Owens Corning’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $176.35 · MV $128.52 · FCF value $274.48
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.13 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $4.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +6.1%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity−10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.8×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.96
- Year-ago EPS$3.67
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
OC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.