QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Cognex CGNX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 8% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $25.01−55%
- Market Value
- $60.83price −8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.88
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $56.15
- Fair value est.base case$25.01−55.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.80−38.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$56.15you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$60.83+8.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$72.42+29.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CGNX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CGNX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.88
- Volatility
- 59% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.45
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 49% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 17% to $1.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 22%, above the 15% median for the 128 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.7% below its Market Value of $60.83, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $25.01, 55% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 54.6× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 66.9% in FY2025 from 71.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.51): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.88 vs the S&P 500 and 59% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cognex in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 54.6 · FCF yield 2.8% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 54.6×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 35.6×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.77×
- Price / book
- 5.86×
- Market cap
- $9.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.04
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $175M
- Net income growth
- +43%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.9%
- Operating margin
- 21.9%
- Net margin
- 16.1%
- FCF margin
- 24.6%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $404M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $268M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +49%
- Dividend yield
- 0.59%$56M paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $154M1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $49M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 5, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 5, 2026. From Cognex’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $25.01 · MV $60.83 · FCF value $28.36
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 5, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days +1.1%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.2×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.51
- Year-ago EPS$0.27
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CGNX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.