QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
Otter Tail OTTR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $90.00price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.12
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Aug 11), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($77.22, Oct 31) about 20%. The last 3 years delivered −23%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −23%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $94.28Aug 11 | $77.22Oct 31 | $91.51 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +20% | n/a |
| P/E | 20.3× | 11.4× | 19.5× |
| P/FCF | — | 40.0× | — |
| EV/Sales | 3.7× | 3.0× | 3.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for OTTR: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OTTR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.12
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.04
How it ranks
Where OTTR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−2.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 12%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 46%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−0.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin17% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 35%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 33%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $90.00
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.4% ($93M paid over 12 months, 47% of earnings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.6×, below the 1.5× median for the 66 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 0.4% over 12 months, below the +1.3% median for the 71 Utilities companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6.5%, above the 5.7% median for the 63 Utilities companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$79M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 0.2% over the last 12 months, below the 7.7% median for the 92 Utilities companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 15% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 19.5 · FCF yield -2.1% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.5×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −2.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.91×
- Price / book
- 2.02×
- Market cap
- $3.8Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $4.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.63
- EPS growth, last FY
- −8.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $195M
- Net income growth
- −32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 17.2%
- Net margin
- 14.9%
- FCF margin
- −6.1%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $334M
- Total debt
- $1.2B
- Net cash
- −$853M
- Debt / equity
- 0.63×
- Interest coverage
- 4.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$79M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.44%$93M paid
- Payout ratio
- 47%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Otter Tail’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-2.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin−13%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $91.51
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$77.22−15.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$90.00−1.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$91.51you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$94.28+3.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +1.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
OTTR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Otter Tail in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.