QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
TransAlta TAC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $15.13+18%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.11
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TAC’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TAC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.11
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
How it ranks
Where TAC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate18% · price below our base caseTop 34%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 21%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 35%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−15% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 2%of 1,814
- Operating margin5.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 29%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital8.1% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 39%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $15.13 · FCF value $23.15
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -6.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.95 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7143), from the 40-F filed Feb 27, 2026. Net debt $2.5B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $15.13, 18% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.5% (price / FCF 13.4×): $284M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 1.5× median for the 66 Utilities companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.3×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Balance sheetNet cash of $21M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 5.8% in FY2025 from 32.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.4× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $99M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 55 points in two fiscal years, to -10% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 7.5% · ROE -9% · Sales −15%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 13.4×
- FCF yield
- 7.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.3×
- Price / sales
- 2.21×
- Price / book
- 3.80×
- Market cap
- $3.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −15.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −6.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.64
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$99M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.0%
- Operating margin
- 5.8%
- Net margin
- −5.7%
- FCF margin
- 16.5%
- Return on equity
- −9%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $146M
- Total debt
- $125M
- Net cash
- $21M
- Debt / equity
- 0.13×
- Interest coverage
- 0.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $284M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −18%
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%$37M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $17M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From TransAlta’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity−1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.50−9.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$12.77you are here
- Fair value est.base case$15.13+18.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.67+38.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +4.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.05
- Year-ago EPS($0.01)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TAC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TransAlta in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.