QualityDipStocks / Finance · Investment Managers
Blue Owl Capital OWL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.51
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 36% below its 52-week high (Dec 9), but the business held up: revenue +340.5%, revenue growth rate +329.2 pts, earnings per share +75.6%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +340.5%, revenue growth rate +329.2 pts, earnings per share +75.6%), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 36% below its 52-week high.
The price is 36% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$559M → $2.5B (+340.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+11.2% → +340.5% a year (+329.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.08 → $0.14 (+75.6%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B → $1.5B (+30.7%)held up
- Shares outstanding+3.7% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−4.4% of market cap since the highabout the same
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −36%, sector median +11% since Dec 9changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −36%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +76% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 9.8× at the high → 4.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($16.67, Dec 9) the price assumed about −5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($8.23, Apr 10) about −19%; today about −17%. The last 3 years delivered 22%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 22%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $16.67Dec 9 | $8.23Apr 10 | $10.62 |
| Implied growth | −5% | −19% | −17% |
| P/E | 216.4× | 69.1× | 78.5× |
| P/FCF | 9.8× | 4.5× | 4.9× |
| EV/Sales | 25.7× | 15.1× | 4.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for OWL: the model gives 524% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OWL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OWL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.51
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Valuation details
FCF value $23.99
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 340% to $2.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.1% (price / FCF 11.0×): $1.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 34% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.7% ($615M paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 31% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 175.5× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 50% to $0.10 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt rose 98% to $3.3B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 3.7% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 175.5 · FCF yield 9.1% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 175.5×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- 11.0×
- FCF yield
- 9.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.75×
- Price / book
- 8.63×
- Market cap
- $16.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $20.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +340.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +34.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- −50.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $95M
- Net income growth
- +82%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 61.1%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $214M
- Total debt
- $3.6B
- Net cash
- −$3.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.89×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +31%
- Dividend yield
- 3.70%$615M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $77M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $735M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Blue Owl Capital’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.1%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin31%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.62
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$8.23−22.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.62you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$16.67+57.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +13.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
OWL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Blue Owl Capital in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Investment Managers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.