QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Pagaya Technologies PGY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 35% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 39% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 15%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −35%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.14
52-week range 44% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $18.13
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 35% below its 52-week high (Nov 11), but the business held up: revenue +14.8%, earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow +22.6%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +14.8%, earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow +22.6%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −13.5 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 35% below its 52-week high.
The price is 35% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −13.5 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.2B → $1.4B (+14.8%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+28.3% → +14.8% a year (−13.5 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$191M → $234M (+22.6%)held up
- Operating margin17.3% → 26.4% (+9.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+8.2% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −35%, sector median +12% since Nov 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −35%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +19% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 13.3× at the high → 7.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($27.77, Nov 11) the price assumed about 0%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($10.64, Feb 23) about −17%; today about −10%. The last 3 years delivered 20%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 20%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $27.77Nov 11 | $10.64Feb 23 | $18.13 |
| Implied growth | 0% | −17% | −10% |
| P/E | n/a | n/a | 11.9× |
| P/FCF | 13.3× | 5.1× | 7.6× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for PGY: the model gives 304% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PGY’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PGY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.14
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 13.1% (price / FCF 7.6×): $234M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.3% in FY2025 from −3.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 28% over the last 12 months, up 39 points in two years.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 42.4% in FY2025 from 37.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 8.2% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.9×, above the 1.6× median for the 368 Finance companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.14 vs the S&P 500 and 74% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 11.9 · FCF yield 13.1% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.9×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- 7.6×
- FCF yield
- 13.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.25×
- Price / book
- 2.87×
- Market cap
- $1.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.68
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $150M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.9%
- Operating margin
- 26.4%
- Net margin
- 10.5%
- FCF margin
- 16.3%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $247M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $234M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +36%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $34M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Pagaya Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.1%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $18.13
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.64−41.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$18.13you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$27.77+53.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 45 · 5 days −4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PGY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Pagaya Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.