QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Containers/Packaging
Packaging of America PKG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $132.18−49%
- Market Value
- $251.22price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.68
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $256.82
- Fair value est.base case$132.18−48.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$191.68−25.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$251.22−2.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$256.82you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$257.43+0.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PKG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PKG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.68
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 10% to $9.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 19% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.0%, above the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $132.18, 49% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 38% to $4.0B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 33.3× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 20%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Packaging of America in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Containers/Packaging
All fundamentals
P/E 33.3 · FCF yield 3.2% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.8×
- FCF yield
- 3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.40×
- Price / book
- 4.90×
- Market cap
- $22.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $26.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- −3.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $687M
- Net income growth
- −23%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.1%
- Operating margin
- 10.9%
- Net margin
- 7.2%
- FCF margin
- 7.8%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $594M
- Total debt
- $4.0B
- Net cash
- −$3.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.85×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $742M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +19%
- Dividend yield
- 1.96%$448M paid
- Payout ratio
- 65%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $212M0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $49M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Packaging of America’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $132.18 · MV $251.22 · FCF value $178.19
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.34 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $3.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +3.9%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
PKG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.