QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Beverages
Coca-Cola Company KO
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $54.54−42%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $94.08
- Fair value est.base case$54.54−42.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.54−28.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$94.08you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$95.34+1.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.7%; bull = 8.5% and 5.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.29
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 156% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 43% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 28.7% in FY2025 from 24.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 24% to $3.04 in FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $54.54, 42% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 27.7× is 15% above its own average of 24.1× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.5%, below the 5.9% median for the 37 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 26.5×, above the 13.5× median for the 26 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividends take 77% of earnings ($11.2B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Coca-Cola Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Beverages
All fundamentals
P/E 27.7 · FCF yield 3.5% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.7×3-yr-end avg 24.1× · Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 28.4×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.5×
- Price / sales
- 7.95×
- Price / book
- 10.86×
- Market cap
- $406Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $434B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $51.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.39
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.6B
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 62.3%
- Operating margin
- 30.0%
- Net margin
- 28.7%
- FCF margin
- 28.0%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $13.5B
- Total debt
- $41.6B
- Net cash
- −$28.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.11×
- Interest coverage
- 10.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $14.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +156%
- Dividend yield
- 2.77%$11.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 77%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.0B0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $269M
Trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 2, 2026. From Coca-Cola Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $54.54 · FCF value $84.11
Assumes 3.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.31 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $14.3B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$14.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin32%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when KO fires a reversal signal
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