QualityDipStocks / Energy · Electrical Products
Powell Industries POWL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 52% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 16% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $205.62+34%
- Market Value
- $183.46price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −52%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.46
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 52% below its 52-week high (May 11), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +2.5 pts, free cash flow +26.7%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +2.5 pts, free cash flow +26.7%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped. The price is 52% below its 52-week high.
The price is 52% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.1B → $1.2B (+2.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+4.5% → +7.0% a year (+2.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$5.11 → $5.21 (+2.0%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$193M → $244M (+26.7%)held up
- Operating margin19.8% → 19.7% (−0.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.1% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −52%, sector median +4% since May 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −52%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 61.2× at the high → 23.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($322.05, May 11) the price assumed about 28%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 10%. The last 3 years delivered 28%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 28%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $322.05May 11 | $154.01 |
| Implied growth | +28% | +10% |
| P/E | 63.0× | 29.5× |
| P/FCF | 61.2× | 23.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, POWL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much POWL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.46
- Volatility
- 64% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.54
How it ranks
Where POWL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate34% · price below our base caseTop 28%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 47%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 22%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 39%of 1,814
- Operating margin20% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 29%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $205.62 · MV $183.46 · FCF value $130.63
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 27.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.66 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 19.7% in FY2025 from 8.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 201% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 28% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 29.4% in FY2025 from 21.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 16.1% below its Market Value of $183.46, the average price paid since the Aug 3 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 7% over the last 12 months, from 28% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationP/E of 29.5× vs a 15.9× median for the 73 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 7.5×, above the 1.8× median for the 74 Energy companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.46 vs the S&P 500 and 64% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 17 (consensus EPS $1.52): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 29.5 · FCF yield 4.3% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.5×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 23.1×
- FCF yield
- 4.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.87×
- Price / book
- 7.46×
- Market cap
- $5.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.13
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $191M
- Net income growth
- +9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 30.1%
- Operating margin
- 19.7%
- Net margin
- 16.5%
- FCF margin
- 21.1%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $634M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $244M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +201%
- Dividend yield
- 0.23%$13M paid
- Payout ratio
- 7%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $5M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Powell Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital150%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $154.01
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$94.02−39.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$154.01you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$183.46+19.1%
- Fair value est.base case$205.62+33.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$322.05+109.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −1.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17
- Consensus EPS$1.52
- Year-ago EPS$1.41
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
POWL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Powell Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Energy
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.