QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Murphy Oil MUR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 16% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $37.81price +16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.89
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $43.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$26.57−39.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$37.81−14.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$43.95you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$44.34+0.9%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for MUR: the model gives 274% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MUR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MUR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.89
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 23.6% (price / FCF 4.2×): $1.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.0% ($193M paid over 12 months, 66% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 8% to $3.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 11.1% in FY2025 from 30.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 73% to $0.72 in FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 12% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 16.2% above its Market Value of $37.81, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Murphy Oil in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 21.8 · FCF yield 23.6% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.8×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 4.2×
- FCF yield
- 23.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.7×
- Price / sales
- 2.13×
- Price / book
- 1.22×
- Market cap
- $6.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −11.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- −73.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $294M
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.5%
- Net margin
- 9.7%
- FCF margin
- 50.2%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $484M
- Total debt
- $1.6B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.29×
- Interest coverage
- 5.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +0%
- Dividend yield
- 3.01%$193M paid
- Payout ratio
- 66%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $777,0000.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $52M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Murphy Oil’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $37.81 · FCF value $61.24
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days −0.9%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin83%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.90
- Year-ago EPS$0.41
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MUR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.