QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Porch Group PRCH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $27.85+38%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Oct 29), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($20.89, Oct 29) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($6.40, Feb 5) about 5%; today about 9%. The last 3 years delivered 20%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 20%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $20.89Oct 29 | $6.40Feb 5 | $20.18 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +5% | +9% |
| P/E | 274.9× | 21.8× | 265.6× |
| P/FCF | 23.1× | 17.5× | 22.4× |
| EV/Sales | 5.3× | 2.2× | 5.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PRCH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PRCH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.99
- Volatility
- 77% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.30
How it ranks
Where PRCH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate38% · price below our base caseTop 26%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 45%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 20%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+16% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 33%of 1,814
- Operating margin8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital15% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 33%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $27.85
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.90 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $27.85, 38% above the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 70.5% in FY2025 from 46.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 7.6% in FY2025 from −44.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 200% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.7× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 265.6× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 21.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 38.7×, above the 18.2× median for the 119 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.99 vs the S&P 500 and 77% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 265.6 · FCF yield 4.5% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 265.6×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 22.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 38.7×
- Price / sales
- 4.81×
- Price / book
- 337.93×
- Market cap
- $2.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $530M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.08
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $10M
- Net income growth
- −69%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.1%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- Net margin
- 1.8%
- FCF margin
- 21.5%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $231M
- Total debt
- $404M
- Net cash
- −$174M
- Debt / equity
- n/an/m: equity near zero
- Interest coverage
- 0.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $114M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +200%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +21.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $35M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Porch Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital32%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.18
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.40−68.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.18you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.89+3.5%
- Fair value est.base case$27.85+38.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +16.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PRCH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Porch Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.