QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Rubrik RBRK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $45.49−63%
- Market Value
- $110.60price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.71
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $124.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$43.81−64.7%
- Fair value est.base case$45.49−63.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$110.60−10.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$124.15you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$136.00+9.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RBRK’s free cash flow would need to grow about 34% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RBRK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.71
- Volatility
- 66% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −26.2% in FY2026 from −48.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 42% to $1.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 30% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 57% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 80.1% in FY2026 from 76.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.49, 63% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -65.0× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $254M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
ValuationTrades 12.3% above its Market Value of $110.60, the average price paid since the Aug 27 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Rubrik in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.2% · Sales +42%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 84.2×
- FCF yield
- 1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 16.59×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $25.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +42.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +29.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$254M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 80.2%
- Operating margin
- −18.3%
- Net margin
- −16.5%
- FCF margin
- 19.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -65.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $304M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +57%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $342M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Rubrik’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $45.49 · MV $110.60 · FCF value $32.49
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 29.9% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.47 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 1, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days −3.6%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +38%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin80%
- Operating margin−18%
- Return on invested capital−35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+38%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
RBRK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.