QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Protagonist Therapeutics PTGX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $56.74−59%
- Market Value
- $143.48price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 12% below its 52-week high (Aug 17), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 12% below its 52-week high.
The price is 12% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$282M → $282M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.17 → $1.17 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$131M → $131M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin20.7% → 20.7% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −12%, sector median +2% since Aug 17about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −12%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 86.3× at the high → 75.8× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 17, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($158.62, Aug 17) the price assumed about 35%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($75.95, Nov 3) about 43%; today about 32%. The last 3 years delivered 20%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 20%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $158.62Aug 17 | $75.95Nov 3 | $139.37 |
| Implied growth | +35% | +43% | +32% |
| P/E | 135.8× | 92.7× | 119.4× |
| P/FCF | 86.3× | 130.0× | 75.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PTGX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 32% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PTGX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
How it ranks
Where PTGX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate59% · price above our base caseLowest 8%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+35% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 12%of 1,814
- Operating margin21% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 26%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $56.74 · MV $143.48 · FCF value $38.71
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.84 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 252% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 35% to $282M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 11%, above the 6.8% median for the 210 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $56.74, 59% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 58.2% in FY2024 from 245.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 119.4× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 11.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $2.58): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 119.4 · FCF yield 1.3% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 119.4×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 75.8×
- FCF yield
- 1.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 35.09×
- Price / book
- 11.76×
- Market cap
- $9.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $282M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +34.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $83M
- Net income growth
- +59%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 20.7%
- Net margin
- 29.4%
- FCF margin
- 46.3%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $783M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $131M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +252%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +11.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $50M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Protagonist Therapeutics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +3749%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin34%
- Gross margin100%
- Operating margin74%
- Return on invested capital241%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3749%
- Net debt / EBITDA−12.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $139.37
- Fair value est.base case$56.74−59.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$75.95−45.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$139.37you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$143.48+2.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$158.62+13.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −0.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5
- Consensus EPS$2.58
- Year-ago EPS($0.62)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
PTGX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Protagonist Therapeutics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.