QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
DraftKings DKNG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 42% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $40.48+94%
- Market Value
- $21.33price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −42%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.70
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.91
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.59−11.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$20.91you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 25$21.33+2.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$36.24+73.3%
- Fair value est.base case$40.48+93.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DKNG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DKNG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.70
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.08
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $40.48, 94% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −0.3% in FY2025 from −21.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 39% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.3% in a year: $483M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.3% (price / FCF 15.9×): $651M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $167M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −3% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −21%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 7.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS ($0.31)): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on DraftKings in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
All fundamentals
FCF yield 6.3% · ROE -21% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 15.9×
- FCF yield
- 6.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.67×
- Price / book
- 18.22×
- Market cap
- $10.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +39.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$167M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.5%
- Operating margin
- −2.9%
- Net margin
- −2.7%
- FCF margin
- 10.5%
- Return on equity
- −21%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $984M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $651M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +30%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $483M4.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $324M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From DraftKings’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $40.48 · MV $21.33 · FCF value $23.35
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 39.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.31 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales −5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin−5%
- Return on invested capital−16%
- Return on equity−21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−5%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.6×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.31)
- Year-ago EPS($0.41)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DKNG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.