QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
RLI RLI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $44.95−31%
- Market Value
- $64.50price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.51
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $65.23
- Fair value est.base case$44.95−31.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$47.77−26.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 19$64.50−1.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$65.23you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$67.01+2.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 23.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 21.6%; bull = 8.5% and 25.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RLI would need a return on equity of about 36% a year; our estimate uses 24%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RLI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.51
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.40
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 7.2% ($430M paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 17% to $4.37 in FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $44.95, 31% below the price.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $430M paid vs $395M of net income.
GrowthSales grew only 3.5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.5×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on RLI in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 15.1 · ROE 22% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 3.08×
- Price / book
- 3.53×
- Market cap
- $6.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- +16.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $395M
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 20.3%
- FCF margin
- 27.4%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $46M
- Total debt
- $297M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $532M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −9%
- Dividend yield
- 7.19%$430M paid
- Payout ratio
- 109%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From RLI’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $44.95 · MV $64.50
Financials model (residual income): book value $21.04 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 23.6%, the average of 20.3% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 26.9% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 109%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +0.6%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.9%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
RLI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.