QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Rapid7 RPD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Cheapest vs its fair value estimate of all 1507 stocks we value
- FCF yield 14%, top 6% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $44.41+199%
- Market Value
- $13.21price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.78
52-week range 72% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $14.85Fair value est. $44.41Market Value $13.21
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 20% below its 52-week high (Nov 3), but the business held up.
Some numbers held up, others slipped (earnings per share −31.5%, free cash flow −19.6%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 20% below its 52-week high.
The price is 20% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −31.5%, free cash flow −19.6%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$855M → $856M (+0.1%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+4.7% → +0.1% a year (−4.6 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.43 → $0.30 (−31.5%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$180M → $145M (−19.6%)changed
- Operating margin2.7% → 1.2% (−1.5 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding+5.0% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −20%, sector median +5% since Nov 3changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −20%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −20% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.7× at the high → 7.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($18.68, Nov 3) the price assumed about −12%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −11%. The last 3 years delivered 36%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 36%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.68Nov 3 | $5.05Apr 9 | $14.85 |
| Implied growth | −12% | below −30% | −11% |
| P/E | 43.1× | 14.0× | 50.1× |
| P/FCF | 6.7× | 2.2× | 7.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.9%; bull = 8.5% and 9.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RPD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RPD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 6.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.78
- Volatility
- 84% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where RPD stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate199% · price below our base caseTop 1%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield14% · free cash flow vs market capTop 6%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 14%of 2,184
- Operating margin1.2% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 18%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $44.41 · MV $13.21 · FCF value $48.26
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 7.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.13 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.4% (price / FCF 7.0×): $145M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 1.3% in FY2025 from −10.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $44.41, 199% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 69%, above the 57% median for the 308 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.0× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 10% to $0.36 in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 12.5% above its Market Value of $13.21, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 50.1 · FCF yield 14.4% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 50.1×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 7.0×
- FCF yield
- 14.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.18×
- Price / book
- 5.13×
- Market cap
- $1.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $856M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.31
- EPS growth, last FY
- −10.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $20M
- Net income growth
- −28%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 69.3%
- Operating margin
- 1.2%
- Net margin
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 16.9%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $703M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $145M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $89M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Rapid7’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.85
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.05−66.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$13.21−11.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$14.85you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.68+25.8%
- Fair value est.base case$44.41+199.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days −17.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.19
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
RPD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Rapid7 in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.