QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limited ADS SBSW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 59% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 59% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 16%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $1.84−79%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −59%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.71
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.8%; bull = 8.5% and 8.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SBSW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 36% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SBSW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.71
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
How it ranks
Where SBSW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate79% · price above our base caseLowest 2%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.1% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 21%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 23%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+16% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 32%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $1.84 · FCF value $985.36
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.8% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.09 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from ZAR at 0.06016, 4 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 24, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 24.6% in FY2025 from 12.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $347M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
GrowthSales grew 16% to $7.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 2.6×, below the 2.8× median for the 49 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $1.84, 79% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $311M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 1.1% (price / FCF 93×), so the price leans on future growth.
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.71 vs the S&P 500 and 65% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.1% · ROE -12% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 93.5×
- FCF yield
- 1.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.79×
- Price / book
- 2.60×
- Market cap
- $6.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$311M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.6%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- −4.0%
- FCF margin
- 0.8%
- Return on equity
- −12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- $686M
- Net cash
- $347M
- Debt / equity
- 0.29×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $66M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.29%$18M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limited ADS’s SEC filings, reported in ZAR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $28.0B · Sales +64%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$28.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital236%
- Return on equity35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+64%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.74
- Fair value est.base case$1.84−79.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$8.00−8.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.74you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$21.12+141.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 32 · 5 days −6.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
SBSW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limited ADS in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.