QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Septerna SEPN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $71.99+67%
- Market Value
- $40.39price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.00
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 10% below its 52-week high (Aug 12), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 10% below its 52-week high.
The price is 10% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$99M → $99M (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$105M → $105M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin−44.0% → −44.0% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −10%, sector median +1% since Aug 12about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −10%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 20.7× at the high → 18.5× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 12, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($48.19, Aug 12) the price assumed about 8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($18.10, Nov 10) about −9%; today about 6%.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $48.19Aug 12 | $18.10Nov 10 | $43.20 |
| Implied growth | +8% | −9% | +6% |
| P/FCF | 20.7× | 8.0× | 18.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SEPN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SEPN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 5.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.00
- Volatility
- 67% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where SEPN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate67% · price below our base caseTop 17%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 36%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Operating margin−44% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 2%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $71.99 · MV $40.39 · FCF value $16.20
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1644.5% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.33 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $71.99, 67% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.4% (price / FCF 18.5×): $105M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −148.6% in FY2025 from 1374.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $24M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −44% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $40.39, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 5.4% · ROE -6%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 18.5×
- FCF yield
- 5.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 19.68×
- Price / book
- 5.03×
- Market cap
- $1.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $99M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: revenue a year ago near zero
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/an/m
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$24M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −44.0%
- Net margin
- −24.5%
- FCF margin
- 106.3%
- Return on equity
- −6%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $372M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $105M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $16M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Septerna’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +22376%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin30%
- Gross margin100%
- Operating margin−63%
- Return on invested capital−108%
- Return on equity−6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22376%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $43.20
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.10−58.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$40.39−6.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$43.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$48.19+11.6%
- Fair value est.base case$71.99+66.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +4.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9
- Consensus EPS($0.55)
- Year-ago EPS($0.09)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
SEPN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Septerna in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.