QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Shell PLC) SHEL
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $116.93+8%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.16
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $108.69
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$70.31−35.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$108.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$108.69at the price
- Fair value est.base case$116.93+7.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SHEL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SHEL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.16
- Volatility
- 23% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $21.1B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 0.3× median for the 36 Energy companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.7% ($8.6B paid over 12 months, 48% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 6% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10%, below the 13% median for the 42 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Shell PLC) in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 18.1 · ROE 10% · Sales −6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.1×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.21×
- Price / book
- 1.85×
- Market cap
- $323Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $302B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $267B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −6.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −11.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $17.8B
- Net income growth
- +11%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $30.2B
- Total debt
- $9.1B
- Net cash
- $21.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.05×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.67%$8.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 48%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $13.9B4.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Shell PLC)’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $116.93 · FCF value $340.89
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -11.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.38 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Mar 12, 2026. Capex: cash capital expenditure (company tag). Net debt $54.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +0.5%
The business
FCF $37.4B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$37.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when SHEL fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on SHEL or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.