QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home improvement retail
Sherwin-Williams Company SHW
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $200.87−40%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.79
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $332.61
- Fair value est.base case$200.87−39.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$293.00−11.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$332.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$372.60+12.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SHW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SHW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.79
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 64% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.5% in a year.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 18.1% in FY2023 from 15.5% in FY2021 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 27% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $200.87, 40% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.0× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationP/E of 30.2× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 2.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 20.3×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Sherwin-Williams Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Home improvement retail
All fundamentals
P/E 30.2 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 64%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.2×3-yr-end avg 32.5× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 26.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.24×
- Price / book
- 20.31×
- Market cap
- $80.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $92.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $24.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- −2.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.7B
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.6%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 10.7%
- FCF margin
- 12.4%
- Return on equity
- 64%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $264M
- Total debt
- $11.8B
- Net cash
- −$11.5B
- Debt / equity
- 2.97×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +27%
- Dividend yield
- 0.97%$785M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $117M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Sherwin-Williams Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $200.87 · FCF value $321.34
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $12.68 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $11.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −1.3%
The business
FCF $3.1B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity63%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when SHW fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on SHW or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.