QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home improvement retail
Tractor Supply Company TSCO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 40% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $9.27−73%
- Market Value
- $33.41price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.32
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $33.94
- Fair value est.base case$9.27−72.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$29.14−14.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$33.41−1.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$33.94you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$56.18+65.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TSCO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TSCO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.32
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.02
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 40% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.8% ($495M paid over 12 months, 49% of earnings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 10.7×, below the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $9.27, 73% below the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 63% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 42% in FY2025.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 58×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tractor Supply Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Home improvement retail
All fundamentals
P/E 17.6 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 40%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 58.0×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.7×
- Price / sales
- 1.13×
- Price / book
- 6.77×
- Market cap
- $17.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $19.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- +1.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.0B
- Net income growth
- −7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.5%
- Operating margin
- 8.5%
- Net margin
- 6.4%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
- Return on equity
- 40%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $232M
- Total debt
- $2.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.82×
- Interest coverage
- 19.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $307M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −63%
- Dividend yield
- 2.78%$495M paid
- Payout ratio
- 49%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $445M2.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $64M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Tractor Supply Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $9.27 · MV $33.41 · FCF value $5.82
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.59 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $1.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +1.6%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TSCO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.