QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home improvement retail
Home Depot HD
Not in a dip by our rules: 16% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $240.22−27%
- Market Value
- $307.62price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.67
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $329.20
- Fair value est.base case$240.22−27.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$281.15−14.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 18$307.62−6.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$329.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$391.05+18.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.67
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 24%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.6% (price / FCF 21.7×): $15.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 104%, above the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.8% ($9.2B paid over 12 months, 65% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $240.22, 27% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 28% to $53.9B from FY2024 to FY2026.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.2× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales grew only 1.5% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $307.62, the average price paid since the Aug 18 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Home Depot in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Home improvement retail
All fundamentals
P/E 23.0 · FCF yield 4.6% · ROE 104%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.0×3-yr-end avg 25.8× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 21.7×
- FCF yield
- 4.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.4×
- Price / sales
- 1.94×
- Price / book
- 19.73×
- Market cap
- $328Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $379B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $169B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- −4.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.2B
- Net income growth
- −3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.2%
- Operating margin
- 12.4%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 8.9%
- Return on equity
- 104%
- Return on invested capital
- 24%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.1B
- Total debt
- $52.9B
- Net cash
- −$50.8B
- Debt / equity
- 3.18×
- Interest coverage
- 8.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $15.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +6%
- Dividend yield
- 2.81%$9.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 65%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $560M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 2, 2026. From Home Depot’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $240.22 · MV $307.62 · FCF value $378.65
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.5% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.16 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 25, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +2.9%
The business
FCF $15.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$15.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin33%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity108%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.86
- Year-ago EPS$3.74
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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