QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
SmartStop Self Storage REIT SMA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $35.49−5%
- Market Value
- $33.32price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.45
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 71.5×; 52-wk low: P/E 177.8×; now: P/E 71.5×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $37.25Nov 2 | $29.63May 19 | $37.25 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 71.5× | 177.8× | 71.5× |
| EV/Sales | 10.3× | 9.2× | 10.3× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.8%; bull = 8.5% and 11.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SMA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SMA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.45
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where SMA stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate5% · price above our base caseTop 48%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 33%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+21% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 24%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $35.49 · MV $33.32
Assumes 9.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.53 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 21% to $306M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.3% ($89M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 9.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 7.4% median for the 90 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 21.0% in FY2025 from 30.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.3× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 71.5× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 7.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 11.8% above its Market Value of $33.32, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 71.5 · ROE 2% · Sales +21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 71.5×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.8×
- Price / sales
- 6.73×
- Price / book
- 1.78×
- Market cap
- $2.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $306M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +21.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $29M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.8%
- Operating margin
- 21.4%
- Net margin
- 9.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $38M
- Total debt
- $1.1B
- Net cash
- −$1.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.97×
- Interest coverage
- 1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.30%$89M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From SmartStop Self Storage REIT’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +11%
- Gross margin66%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $37.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$29.63−20.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$33.32−10.6%
- Fair value est.base case$35.49−4.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$37.25you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$37.25at the price
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 76 · 5 days +5.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.50
- Year-ago EPS$0.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
SMA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on SmartStop Self Storage REIT in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.