QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Stores
Suburban Propane Partners SPH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $24.07+35%
- Market Value
- $17.29price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.06
52-week range 33% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $17.80Fair value est. $24.07Market Value $17.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SPH’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SPH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.06
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
How it ranks
Where SPH stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate35% · price below our base caseTop 27%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield8.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 17%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−2.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 9%of 2,184
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 36%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $24.07 · MV $17.29 · FCF value $29.67
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.52 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $24.07, 35% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.5% (price / FCF 11.7×): $101M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 9.1× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 42% to $1.62 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 63%, above the 37% median for the 316 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.8× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only −1.6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 2.5% over the last 12 months, below the 6.5% median for the 463 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 12 (consensus EPS ($0.43)): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 9.1 · FCF yield 8.5% · Sales −2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 11.7×
- FCF yield
- 8.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.85×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −2.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.93
- EPS growth, last FY
- +42.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $131M
- Net income growth
- +35%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.1%
- Operating margin
- 15.1%
- Net margin
- 9.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 2.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $101M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026. From Suburban Propane Partners’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $17.80
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.39−7.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$17.29−2.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$17.80you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.68+16.2%
- Fair value est.base case$24.07+35.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days −0.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 12
- DateThu Nov 12, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.43)
- Year-ago EPS($0.62)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
SPH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Suburban Propane Partners in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Specialty Stores
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.