QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Stores
Winmark WINA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 41% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Lowest close since Mar 2023
- Operating margin 60%, top 2% of the 1549 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $188.21−34%
- Market Value
- $290.40price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −41%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.50
52-week range at its 52-week low
Price $283.16Fair value est. $188.21Market Value $290.40
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 41% below its 52-week high (Mar 3), but the business held up: revenue +6.7%, revenue growth rate +2.7 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (revenue +6.7%, revenue growth rate +2.7 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (operating margin −3.7 pts). The price is 41% below its 52-week high.
The price is 41% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: operating margin −3.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$86M → $92M (+6.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+5.9% → +8.6% a year (+2.7 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$11.30 → $11.24 (−0.5%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$45M → $44M (−2.1%)about the same
- Operating margin63.4% → 59.7% (−3.7 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding0.0% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −41%, sector median +4% since Mar 3changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −41%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −1% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 39.6× at the high → 23.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 27, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 26, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($480.67, Mar 3) the price assumed about 20%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($279.71, Oct 23) about 10%; today about 10%. The last 3 years delivered 1%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 1%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $480.67Mar 3 | $279.71Oct 23 | $283.16 |
| Implied growth | +20% | +10% | +10% |
| P/E | 42.5× | 24.9× | 25.2× |
| P/FCF | 39.6× | 23.6× | 23.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WINA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WINA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.50
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where WINA stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate34% · price above our base caseLowest 23%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield4.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 47%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield5.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 22%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+8.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 47%of 2,184
- Operating margin60% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 1%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $188.21 · MV $290.40 · FCF value $283.16
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.88 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 14, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 60% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.8% ($50M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $92M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 22× over.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $188.21, 34% below the price.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $50M paid vs $41M of net income.
GrowthSales grew 1.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 5.2% median for the 467 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 25.2×, above the 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no return-on-capital data.
All fundamentals
P/E 25.2 · FCF yield 4.2% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.2×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 23.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 11.37×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $92M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $41M
- Net income growth
- +0%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 59.7%
- Net margin
- 45.1%
- FCF margin
- 47.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $28M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 22.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $44M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −2%
- Dividend yield
- 4.78%$50M paid
- Payout ratio
- 120%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $8M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $3M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Winmark’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin38%
- Gross margin92%
- Operating margin57%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $283.16
- Fair value est.base case$188.21−33.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$279.71−1.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$283.16you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 14$290.40+2.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$480.67+69.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days +0.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
WINA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Winmark in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Specialty Stores
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.