QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Retail stores
Target TGT
Not in a dip by our rules: 9% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $154.64at the price
- Market Value
- $157.54price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.26
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $154.38
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$83.68−45.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$154.38you are here
- Fair value est.base case$154.64+0.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 19$157.54+2.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$169.89+10.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TGT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TGT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.26
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.01
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.3% (price / FCF 15.8×): $4.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 51% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 17%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew only −1.3% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 23% in FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 2.0% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 5.6%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Target in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Retail stores
All fundamentals
P/E 16.0 · FCF yield 6.3% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.0×3-yr-end avg 14.9× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 15.8×
- FCF yield
- 6.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.65×
- Price / book
- 3.95×
- Market cap
- $70.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $80.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $108B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.64
- EPS growth, last FY
- −8.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.3%
- Operating margin
- 5.6%
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.1%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.4B
- Total debt
- $15.4B
- Net cash
- −$9.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.86×
- Interest coverage
- 14.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +51%
- Dividend yield
- 2.93%$2.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 47%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $153M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $302M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Target’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $154.64 · MV $157.54 · FCF value $249.47
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.3% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.76 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +1.1%
The business
FCF $4.5B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.08
- Year-ago EPS$1.78
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TGT fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TGT or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.