QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Retail stores
Dollar Tree DLTR
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $217.40+62%
- Market Value
- $119.91price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.62
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $133.87
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$86.80−35.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$119.91−10.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$133.87you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$141.21+5.5%
- Fair value est.base case$217.40+62.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.0%; bull = 8.5% and 10.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DLTR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DLTR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.62
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $217.40, 62% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 183% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.1% in a year: $1.8B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.7% (price / FCF 12.9×): $2.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 46% over the last 12 months, up 48 points in two years.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.5% in FY2026 from 10.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 7.5×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 11.6% above its Market Value of $119.91, the average price paid since the Aug 27 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Dollar Tree in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Retail stores
All fundamentals
P/E 15.8 · FCF yield 7.7% · ROE 46%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.9×
- FCF yield
- 7.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.27×
- Price / book
- 7.46×
- Market cap
- $25.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $27.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $20.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.7%
- Operating margin
- 11.0%
- Net margin
- 8.0%
- FCF margin
- 9.9%
- Return on equity
- 46%
- Return on invested capital
- 31%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- $2.9B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.86×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +183%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.8B7.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $68M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Dollar Tree’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $217.40 · MV $119.91 · FCF value $267.20
Assumes 8.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.0% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026. Net debt $1.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +6.8%
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital27%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when DLTR fires a reversal signal
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