QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Retail stores
Dollar General DG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $153.28+16%
- Market Value
- $126.61price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.46
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $132.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$95.94−27.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$126.61−4.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$132.30you are here
- Fair value est.base case$153.28+15.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$156.24+18.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.1%; bull = 8.5% and 6.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.46
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $153.28, 16% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.9% (price / FCF 14.6×): $2.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 34% to $6.85 in FY2026.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $4.6B at FY2026, 35% less than at FY2024.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 7 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 5.6%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.3% over 12 months, above the −1.8% median for the 160 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.8% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Dollar General in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Retail stores
All fundamentals
P/E 17.2 · FCF yield 6.9% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.2×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 14.6×
- FCF yield
- 6.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.67×
- Price / book
- 3.15×
- Market cap
- $29.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $32.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $43.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- +34.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Net income growth
- +43%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.2%
- Operating margin
- 5.6%
- Net margin
- 3.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.6%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.6B
- Total debt
- $4.6B
- Net cash
- −$3.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.49×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.77%$520M paid
- Payout ratio
- 31%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $100M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Dollar General’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $153.28 · MV $126.61 · FCF value $231.64
Assumes 4.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.1% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.08 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days −0.3%
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.